Jason’s Weather Blog

Ramdon Thoughts On the Weather

Hurricane Earl Now a Category 4 Storm

Updated satellite image of Earl moving near San Juan and Right on Earl’s heels Tropical Storm Fiona is born

 

 

 

August 30th, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments

Hurricane Earl Now a MAJOR Hurricane

Hurricane Earl Has been upgraded to a MAJOR Hurricane and will be moving into waters that are favorable to continue to intensify

Here is the National Hurricane Centers Officaial Track forecast

August 30th, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments

Hurricane Danielle now a category 4 hurricane

Danielle has gained alot of strength overnight and is now a cat 4 hurricane while there is no threat of this system making landfall to the US, the east coast should start to see some increased wave action as Danielle moves further NW near Bermuda, Danielle eyes is easily visible on this iamge

 

Tropical Storm Earl is still holding his own and is expected to intensify over the next 24-36 hours and should make Earl a hurricane in the next couple of days, Still watching that next wave that is about half way on this visible imagery shot for our next depression, the National Hurricane Center has marked this area as having a 60% chance of forming into a tropical Cyclone

 

 

August 27th, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments

Danielle and Earl Still steaming along

While Hurricane Danielle and Tropical storm Earl continue to steam along int he open atlantic, another area of interest has got its act together about 350 miles from the cape verde islands and will be the next system to monitor it what appears to be the start of a active cycle for tropical cyclones

The below image shows Hurricane Danielle and a fairly well defined eye and it also shows tropical storm earl trying to wrap itself up tighter as well as you can jsut start to see what may become our next tropical depression starting to appear on the map

 

August 26th, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments

Hurricane Danielle

Danielle Has Formed an Eyewall in the overnight hours and is taking on a more classic Hurricane look 

August 26th, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments

Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl

Updated IR Satellite image showing Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl Spiraling there Way through the Atlantic Ocean

While Danielle Should continue a North to North West track and be of no threat to land, We will need to keep an eye on Earl as it could start to cause issues for the Antilles and Windward Islands in the coming week

August 25th, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments

Danielle Now A Category 2 Hurricane

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS NOT AS WELL
ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO…LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE AT 77 AND 90 KT…
RESPECTIVELY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
PULSATING FOR REASONS THAT ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD…BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS INDICATIVE OF A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT
IS LESS DEFINED TO THE WEST. BASED UPON THE HIGHER SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES…THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT.

AN EYE FEATURE THAT FORMED EARLIER IS NO LONGER EVIDENT…BUT A 0434
UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER.  THAT
OVERPASS AND OTHER RECENT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE…280/17.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WHEN IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 45-50W.  DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED BY 48 HOURS WHEN A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO DECELERATE AND TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE REMAINING IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
28-29C.  THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE…AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A
35% CHANCE OF AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS…SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HALT THE CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION OR POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  LATER IN THE
PERIOD…THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
SHEAR…BUT…GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES
NOT SHOW RESTRENGTHENING IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS…AND UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT TIME.

 

August 24th, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments

Hurricane Danielle Steaming West

TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS…INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS NOW RELAXING.  A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION.  DESPITE THAT
STRUCTURE…DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB…AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS.  THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION…AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE…THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN
LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS…LGEM…AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND
HWRF.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
290/15.  A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE…AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED…AND AGAIN…LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
GFDL…HWRF…AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

August 23rd, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments

Much Needed Rain Falls In Benton

Got to love these quick afternoon popup isolated thunderstorms that dumb 2.48" of rain on you in the matter of an hour or so,  this was the first measurable precip i have had at home in 19 days so it was a much needed and welcomed rain,   Don’t think it is going to help out our temp’s/Humidity though as it looks to remain hot for the next few days,  Paducah Weather service has extended our excessive heat warning into Saturday and now starting to wander what this tropical interaction will do as far as humidity next week even though temps look to be a little cooler humidity may be higher so we might not be able to win for losing on the heat for a little while longer

 

Stay Tuned

August 12th, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments

Tropical Depression FIVE

National Hurricane Center has issued the following watches and warnings associated with Tropical Depression 5 which is the Low pressure system that I was tlaking about earlier today that looked conducive to growing into a Depression and or tropical storm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2330 UTC WED AUG 11 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA…INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA…INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 84.1W AT 11/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

August 10th, 2010 Posted by admin | Uncategorized | no comments