All COmputer model still indication Deadly HUrricane Ike should move over the nation of Cuba and then into the Gulf Of mexico.
Snipet from the AP Today: PROVIDENCIALES, Turks and Caicos (AP) — The Turks and Caicos premier says Hurricane Ike has damaged 80 percent of the homes on Grand Turk island.
Michael Misick tells The Associated Press by phone that Grand Turk took almost a direct hit and that hundreds of people have lost their roofs. He says people are cowering in closets and under stairwells and are "just holding on for life. They got hit really, really bad," he says.
There are no reports of deaths or injuries, but authorities are now trying to rescue people and get them into shelters.
Ike is now raking Haiti and barreling toward the Bahamas and Cuba as a powerful Category 4 storm.
Misick said Sunday that he will fly to Grand Turk once the weather subsides.
(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
The group called Mujeres Solidarias formed in the month of November, 2006. This committee formed thanks to Idalina Jara, who came to a talk and was interested in the program. She motivated her neighbors to participate in the program. The group is centered in the center of the city of Itá.
The group has now worked with the Fundación Paraguaya (this microcredit organization) for two years. All of them have been adhered to the program and this has brought them the opportunity to get loans much more easily and it is also important to point out that they value the loan and they demonstrate excellent repayment behavior. They are very talented and and united, participating in meetings twice monthly. Also they do extra activities in order to gather the funds to solve any eventuality that might happen to the committee.
The group is made up of a total of 15 industrious women who do various activities. They want a new loan that they will invest according to the activity of each member.
Florencia Báez will use her loan to buy fabric and thread to make and embroider items to wear. Aida Rojas will buy wallets, necklaces, and other articles to sell. Lucia Rodriguez, Valentina Enciso, Mercedes Alvarenga, Teresa Rojas, Julia Galeano, Idalina Jara, Maris Hellman and María Teresa Notario have stores where they will invest their loans in the purchase of rice, sugar, yerba mate (an herbal tea), flour, vermicelli, cleaning supplies, etc.
Nilda Colmán wants to buy sweets as she is in charge of a school canteen. Gloria Gill sells clothes and she wants to acquire winter clothing stock. Emiliana Acosta will buy coal to sell.
The last two are Liz Ocampos who will invest her loan to buy fruits and vegetables for her business, and Francisca Bustamante who also sells clothing and therefore the loan would be destined to buy winter clothing.
AS Hurricane Gustav pulled on shore over the weekend and has been downgraded to a tropical depression it has still dumped tons and tons of rain on louisana and exposed some vital flaws still evident in the levee system. While most of the area was sparred a direct hit there is still tons of damage which will take weeks to cleanup, So Now we turn and focus on Hanna which is back and forth between a hurricane and tropical storm due to alot of upper level wind sheard filtering in at this time the NHC has forecast hanna to be a mild CAT 2 At this time when she makes landfall, Then right on Hannas heels we have IKE which could be the next major hurricane and if that weren’t enough to deal with lets go ahead and throw in Tropical depression 10 which is forecast to be a tropical Storm Josphenie by the days end
While we are still watching for further development of tropical storm gustav which she be back to hurricane strength soon we have another tropical storm that has formed in the atlantic named HANNA which current models have heading towards florida while Gustac seems to be making his way toward louisana and texas we also have a few tropical waves out in the far eastern atalnatic that are worth keeping an eye on for future development
WTNT42 KNHC 251439
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING IN THE
CARIBBEAN. WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED…
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.
ANALYSIS OF DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE WE ARE
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. AN SSM/IS
IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91
GHZ FREQUENCY…BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS…
THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT. INTERESTINGLY
HOWEVER…THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR
AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE. OUR INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN UPCOMING AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SHOULD GIVE UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER
ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. CURIOUSLY…THE GFS HAS FAILED
TO PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE THUS FAR.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/13 ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE MOTION MAY BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THIS VALUE. THERE IS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD TO OUR TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE
THE RESULT OF TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM. ONE WOULD BE A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC…AND THIS IS
DEPICTED BY THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. A SECOND SCENARIO IS
FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEND MORE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA…AND THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE
BAM TRACKS…THE HWRF…AND THE GFDL. OUR FIRST OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER
SCENARIO. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH…PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THIS FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME.
Households worried about the high cost of keeping warm this winter will draw little comfort from the Farmers’ Almanac, which predicts below-average temperatures for most of the U.S.
“Numb’s the word,” says the 192-year-old publication, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.
The almanac’s 2009 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder than average temperatures, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.
“This is going to be catastrophic for millions of people,” said almanac editor Peter Geiger, noting that the frigid forecast combined with high prices for heating fuel is sure to compound problems households will face in keeping warm.
The almanac predicts above-normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February, and above-normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions should be getting an unusually wet or snowy February, the almanac said.
The forecasts, which are spelled out in three- and four-day periods for each region, are prepared by the almanac’s reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon.
Weatherbee’s outlook is borne out by e-mail comments that the almanac has received in recent days from readers who have spotted signs of nature that point to a rough winter, Geiger said. The signs range from an abundance of acorns already on the ground to the frequency of fog in August.
The almanac’s winter forecast is at odds with that of the National Weather Service, whose trends-based outlook calls for warmer than normal temperatures over much of the country, including Alaska, said Ed O’Lenic, chief of the operations branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
While he wouldn’t comment specifically on the almanac’s ability to forecast the weather two years from now, O’Lenic said it’s generally impossible to come up with accurate forecasts more than a week in advance.
“Of course it’s possible to prepare a forecast with any lead time you like. Whether or nor that forecast has any accuracy or usable skill is another question,” he said.
